100% RE by 2050 and the Effects of Lifetime and Recycling

Comparison case using the functions in PV ICE to compare how PV module lifetime and PV module recycling effect the energy transition to 100% clean energy by 2050.

Folder 15 vs 50 year Module

WORDS WORDS WORDS

File Preparation

First, we load the Module Baseline. Will be used later to populate all the columns other than 'new_InstalledCapacity[MW]' which will be supplied by the REEDS model. Unlike the SF simulations, this analysis will use PV ICE developed baselines.

NOTE: this section of code should only need to be run once to populate data, and again anytime the ReeDS file is updated.

Drop 1995 through 2009 because SF projections begin in 2010. Technically this neglects ~1.5 GW of installs from 1995 through 2009.

Now we load the ReEDS simulation output, i.e. the Solar Futures projections with PCA regions, States, and Scenarios. Note that this is stored outside of the PV ICE folder and therefore not publicly available on github

First create a copy which groups the data by PCA region

For each Scenario and for each PCA, combine with baseline and save as input file. This will be in a folder PCAs under the simulation folder in TEMP

For each Scenario and each State, combine with baseline file and save as input file. This will be in a folder States under the simulation folder in TEMP

Finally, make an overall US baseline which ignores PCA regions and states. This is useful for speeding the simulation.

Analysis

Collect all the scenario names and downselect to the scenario(s) of interest. In this case, we are only concerned with the highest capacity and deployment rate, Decarbonization + Electrification (Decarb+E)

Create baseline material files that start in 2010

Set up the PV ICE simulation with scenario and materials

Run the simulation

Lifetime and Recycling Scenario Creation

The range of potential future technology directions for PV will be explored in terms of module lifetime and EoL recycling rates. Currently technology is ~32 year module with a 6% EoL recycling rate (15% collection, 40% modules sent to recycling). Lifetimes could improve, with 50 years targeted by DOE SETO. And or recycling rates could improve, as modeled by CdTe management from First Solar or perovskite technology. This analysis will explore on a mass flow basis, which of these two circular economy levers is most important research priority for achieving the energy transition while minimizing waste and material extraction.

We will explore from a 15 year module lifetime to a 50 year module lifetime, and from 0% recycled to 100% recycled.

Create lifetime and recycling ranges

Now some magic to automatically generate T50 and T90 values for each lifetime

Create all Scenarios

Now with the lifetime and recycling ranges defined, create a scenario for each combination

Notes:

- recycling values are set to closed loop, with XX% material recycling yields assuming 100% collection of modules and materials

Use the PV ICE "aggregate results" function to print out a table of Virgin Material Demands, Lifecycle Wastes (MFG, EoL, both), new installed capacity and effective cumulative capacity, both annually and cumulatively.

Heat Map - Identical Installs

Read the aggregated results back into the journal from csvs (run time on simulations can be long)

Pie chart of Lifecycle Wastes in 2050, PV ICE scenario

Installation Compensation Calculation

NOTE: this mass flow calculation takes a LONG time to run, recommend leaving it overnight. A csv of the yearly and cumulative aggregated results is saved as csv and read back in to speed analysis and graphing.

Read the csvs back in for plotting (installation compensation calc runs a LONG time).

Bar chart of additional installations

Heat Map - Compensated Installs

Exploring other graphing options